Image: Ben Liebenberg/AP
Everything is possible now, just a few days after the kickoff of the long-awaited 2021 NFL season. Our NFL betting experts will discuss all the most exciting wagers and future bets on the football league in this guide.
Here, we will be discussing all the wagers and longshot futures on the NFL 2021 season. Some people should be aware not to put too much stake and lose too much if they lose their bets. However, bettors can bring in big profits if they manage to win. According to the unofficial rule, anything shorter than 10/1 is not gladly taken in as a longshot. As a result, we are looking for gambles bigger than 20/1 at least or anything of higher value to bring in profit.
More Americans bet on this NFL opening week than ever. But before you decide to place any wager on the games, there is one thing to consider: all your expectations must be kept in check. The picks are always like boom or bust. So you should know that aiming for any longshot bet is not that it will fail, but if it does, it fails spectacularly. However, according to these prices, it’s okay.
So do you feel like putting some skin in the game and predicting the Super Bowl winner? How about the AFC/NFC champion or league MVP? Things will change drastically as the season evolves, but the action is already here for us future bettors. So let the games begin!
Super Bowl Champion
Will LA Chargers Justin Herbert be poised for the leap like Patrick Mahomes and players like Lamar Jackson did in their sophomore years while playing in the league? Or will Herbert see a sophomore slump?
If you think the rookie of the year 2020 has a 50-50 shot of making it happen, that spirit is good enough. According to our betting experts, the offensive rookie has enough to make his team worthy at 4000+ and make them win.
The Chargers are priced to win the Super Bowl at around +3000 or even +3300. LA has more than enough juice and upside to take a shot at 40/1. Many sportsbook apps are priced longer than the Seattle Seahawks, New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints, Dallas Cowboys, and Tennessee Titans. However, you can argue that their squad will be better in any case. Brand Staley is a big X factor as their new coach. But we’re sure he won’t be as worse than Anthony Lynn in guiding the team to a sad 12 wins over the last two seasons.
In 2020, the Chargers won their last four games on the way to 7-9. The team stayed strong and played tough during the early losses in the season to the Buccaneers, Saints, and Chiefs. 7 out of their 9 defeats were single-scored games. This is why it is important to know that the less popular two teams of Los Angeles will score better this year than the previous. According to sportsbook experts, they can win with a total over/under of 9.5. It’s the same as the Cowboys, Titans, Patriots, and it’s a higher score than that of the saints.
If you think the Chargers tend to play it safe always, you can try betting them at 130 or more at BetRivers and similar Kambi scored books for the sake of playoffs. In any case, if you want to bet high on the chance that the Chargers will win, +4000 is too big of a bet for a Cinderella Super Bowl cup.
Even without a nickname, the Washington Football Team has impressed everyone with its elite defense. Their excellent coach, talented young players are pushing the team upwards. The Washington Football Team also upgraded its quarterback. You can even bet on the team legally in Washington D.C, Virginia, and possibly in Maryland in the coming months. So let’s see if that gives us some more momentum.
Veteran football analyst and NFL quarterback superstar Ron Jaworski said that Washington would be the best bet to win NFC East. In last week’s Gamble On podcast show, he stated how good the team was. He asked if any team is longer than 15/1 once they get into the playoffs to reach the super bowl? Washington is currently being betted between +1800 to +2500 at many of the sportsbooks. However, at FOX bet, the Washington team at +2800 to win at the conference. If you have ever believed in Fitz magic, then that’s one heck of a number in any NFC which becomes wide open whenever Tom Brady misses a single step.
If the Chargers are backed again by experts at +2000, it would probably be a lazy choice. It will be far from the best longshot bet when the Indianapolis Colts are sitting at +2200, priced between 12/1 and 18/1 at most of the scorebooks in FOX bet.
The Colts tend to be this year’s best Murphy Law team. Anything can quickly go wrong anytime, and there will be nothing surprising about it. Injuries have been on the team since pre-season. Even though Carson Wentz showed a lot of promise in his early days, but in 2020 his performance was a bust. Wentz could end up as damaged goods at the age of 28. Moreover, he is now waiting for a COVID Vaccine holdout, which puts him at risk to make this game. For now, it hangs between a 5-12 and 6-11 record for this Indianapolis team.
But will this be the season where Wentz and his coach Frank Reich will bring to life their 2017 Philly magic? With the core of the previous year’s 11-5 outstanding performance still intact, they had four wins against Jacksonville and Houston that helped drive the Colts up in speed. Under this scenario, sportsbooks will urge you to cash for 2x investments when playoffs finally begin.
Most of the bottom football teams, such as the New York Jets, Detroit Lions, Huston Texans, Cincinnati Bengals, can’t be found with 10/1 or higher to win the division. But Atlanta Falcons is the exception. The Falcons are ranked as most likely to win NFC south between +700 and +900 and +1200. Atlanta was the “find a way to lose” team of the league in 2020. It went 4-12 but came with the expectation of 7.6 and around 8.4 losses. Coach Dan Quinn who led the team to a 0-5 start had something to do with it. So now it’s tough to decide how Atlanta’s Coach Arthur Smith will work. But on paper, the Falcons are expecting to win 10 out of 17 games.
Defending Super Bowl champions Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the trickiest part in the entire Falcon division title bet. Betting against Tampa is like hell. Although nothing is impossible now, a Super Bowl hangover is rarely seen nowadays. As years pass by, any team is capable of reaching the big game. Since Tom Brady is 44 years old, he’ll probably retire soon. If that happens anytime around this fall, the Falcons can take the spot.
Let us start by getting the longshot option out of the way. Patrick Mahomes is a worthy player at BetMGM at a price as high as +600. Even though he is the closest thing on the field to being the league’s MVP, he did not win the MVP award for two straight years. However, if it is a close call, he’ll get the votes in 2021.
Josh Allen is nowhere near the long shot at the double-digit odds. Although, he is the third favorite onboard, right behind Pat Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers. So there are three QBs ready, depending on how much you want to go.
On the other hand, in BetMGM, DraftKings, and Fox Bet, Baker Mayfield is priced around +3500. However, the jury is still deliberating whether the former Number One is still good as many talented players in Cleveland surround him. If the Browns finish with more than 12 wins, the quarters will be getting a lot of credit.
Second-year MVPs have leaped from mobile quarterbacks as Mahomes and Jackson were considered a joke until they proved it to everyone. This year’s version of that is +7000 payout on Tua Tagovailoa in Miami on some sportsbooks. However, sophomore Justin Herbert is also a worthy contender but is at +2200. And it is good not to be the all-rounder in the team.
It may sound crazy but remember Jimmy Garropolo? He played in Super Bowl around 19 months ago with the 49ers. And guess what? Most sportsbooks have Jimmy between 65/1 and 95/1 for MVP. In many of the books, he is at +20000, which is 200/1 at BetMGM. However, many experts have almost handed over the award to rookie Trey Lance in their minds. What happens if San Fransisco starts and stays hot? What happens if the Niners win without Jimmy G in the NFC West? If you vouch for that with half percent of it ever happening, you will get a pretty good price.
League Leader Player Prop
The first bet in this category to tempt you is Jamies Winston at +1700 in some sportsbooks to lead the NFL 2021 season in interceptions. Winston threw 30 picks in his last season and is ranked in price 12 from the top. So, is it worth taking a shot on Jamies? Well, no. If Winston decides to turn the ball often as the New Orleans Saint’s starter, he’ll probably lose his position to Taysom Hill.
Learning the league (in anything) while sitting on the bench will be challenging. As a result, our choice is Kyler Murray. He passed yards at +4100. Moreover, the Arizona Cardinals do not want to lose after they came this far, finishing 13th with +3971 passing scores. Now all eyes are on him playing his third NFL season.
Talking about wide receivers, A.J. Green should have an upgrade over the memories Larry Fitzgerald left us in 2020. Also, rookie Randale Moore joins an Arizona Cardinals crew that includes Christian Kirk and DeAndre Hopkins. Given how immensely stacked and ridiculously tough this football division is, Arizona will probably play from behind, meaning that Murray will have to give it all out in his second half and perform better than Allen, Mahomes, or Rodgers.
If you look at all of Murray’s rush stats and games from 2020, you will see that in the first nine games of the season, he averaged 9.7 and 97.1 yards per game.
However, in the last seven gamedays, Murray averaged 6.6 rushes for a total of 30.7 yards. Health, experience, maturity, and understanding of the game are all factors in this game. Although, the more you run, the more you are exposed to injury.
This has happened several times with young QBs that join the league to run fast, but it takes many years for a quarterback to learn how to use his legs properly. All these indicate that Murray can run less and pass more in 2021. So passing yardage should be one of his goals for the 2021 season.
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